Firing on three NBA games Wednesday: Nets at Hornets, 76ers at Celtics, and Kings at Suns
I’m starting this NBA 2025-26 betting season in a hole after the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder couldn’t cover -6.5 in a thrilling 125-124 double overtime win vs. the Houston Rockets on Tuesday. On one hand, the loss sucks, but on the other, it was a little unlucky (or, at least that’s what I’m telling myself) because OKC shot 25.0% from 3-point land.
Related, NBA 2025-26 FUTURES, AWARDS BETS: LONGSHOTS WORTH YOUR MONEY
If I get waxed Wednesday, which I’m afraid of, I might use the same low-volume gambling strategy as I did with MLB this year. Yet, like the Thunder last night, shooters shoot, and there’s no way I’m not betting several games on the NBA’s first full night of action. With that in mind, here are my favorite looks from the Association Wednesday.
NBA Betting Card: October 22
- Brooklyn Nets +5.5 (-110), down to +3.5, at the Charlotte Hornets via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 1.1 units (u).
- Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 (-110), down to +2.5, at the Boston Celtics via DraftKings, risking 1.1u.
- Sprinkle 0.25u on Philadelphia’s +160 moneyline at DraftKings.
- Phoenix Suns -4 (-110), up to -5, vs. the Sacramento Kings via FanDuel, risking 1.1u.
Nets (+5.5) at Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
Who the f*** is Charlotte to be laying -5.5 vs. any NBA team? According to Pregame.com, 85% of the money is on the Hornets at the time of writing, which is the second-biggest betting disparity on the board Wednesday. They are a hipster pick to eclipse their 25.5-win total this season because the basketball community overrates Charlotte PG LaMelo Ball.
However, LaMelo is a god-awful defender, has a poor shot selection, and he had a career-worst 49.4% effective field goal rate last season, which accounts for 2- and 3-point shooting. There’s a reason the Hornets haven’t won more than 27 games in the previous three seasons. People chalk that up to him being injured, but Charlotte is only 36-69 in games Ball has played since 2022.
Granted, the Nets are supposed to suck this season, too. They have a 20.5-win total, tied with the Washington Wizards for the lowest in the Eastern Conference. Nonetheless, Brooklyn is getting +5.5 points, not laying it. I.e., I’m fading the Hornets more than betting on the Nets.
Also, these rosters are a toss-up. Brooklyn newcomer Michael Porter Jr. is an NBA champion and a lights-out shooter. Nets combo guard Cam Thomas can get buckets vs. any defender in the world. They have glue guys, such as wing Terance Mann and big Nic Claxton, whereas Charlotte doesn’t have a good defensive player on its roster.
Lastly, I might “middle” if Brooklyn is ahead at halftime by betting Charlotte’s second-half line, so pay attention to my X feed for that release.
Sixers (+4.5) at Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
I can almost guarantee that Joel Embiid will be ruled out as soon as I place my bet and this article gets published, regardless of what Philly’s beatwriters report. However, as of 2:30 p.m. ET, Paul George is the only 76ers starter who’s been officially ruled out. If Embiid and Sixers PG Tyrese Maxey play Wednesday, Boston shouldn’t be more than -2 favorites.
The Celtics are missing four players from their championship core from two seasons ago. Three left this offseason: Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porziņģis. More importantly, the Celtics’ leading scorer, rebounder, and assist-man from last season, Jayson Tatum, is out with a torn Achilles. Plus, Jaylen Brown is questionable with a hamstring injury.
Ultimately, that’s my handicap for this game: Philadelphia has a former MVP (Embiid) and an All-Star (Maxey), while three of Boston’s projected starters for Wednesday wouldn’t be in the starting 5 for 25+ other teams. If the 76ers lose this game, I’m putting them right back on the “ban list.”
Kings at Suns (-4), 10 p.m. ET
My analysis for the Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns game for the OutKick newsletter.
Pardon my obvious typo in the last sentence from my newsletter handicap in the photo above. Phoenix should have an edge on the boards because it has three 7-foot bigs, and Sacramento will be without the NBA’s leading rebounder from last season, C Domantas Sabonis.
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