It’s never that simple, I’ve learned.
According to population estimates from the past year, the 2030 census will feature some shifting when it comes to electoral college votes.
On the face of it, this looks like an absolute win for the Republican Party.
“Big Bad Blue” States like California, New York, and Illinois will be losing electoral votes as a result of their shrinking population, while Florida, Texas, and Georgia – among others – will be gaining votes to coincide with their booming population.
READ: Census Don’t Lie: 545K People Left New York In 2022
While I am hopeful this means an easier path to the White House for the GOP moving forward, I’m not so sure if I’m as quick as others to celebrate this as a total victory.
While states like New York and California are experiencing mass exoduses with regard to their population, these people fleeing leftist policies from historically blue areas have to go somewhere.
This could explain the boom in population numbers in states like Texas and Florida, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the voting tendencies will stay the same with this influx of new citizens.
Sure, people leaving New York City because they elected a socialist mayor could mean they have become “red-pilled,” but I have also seen several instances of these same people voting for the very policies they just fled.
READ: Zohran Mamdani Being Elected NYC Mayor Could Be Catastrophic… For Florida
This is purely anecdotal on my part, but I’ve lived in both Texas and Florida for many years.
I was born and raised in Florida and moved to the Lone Star State after I graduated from college, and I arrived in Dallas just in time to see the 2018 Texas Senate race between Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz.
When I moved to Dallas, I assumed Texas was a monolith of red (outside of liberal enclaves like El Paso and other border cities).
However, I was shocked to see how blue Dallas County was, with even suburban and affluent neighborhoods sporting “Beto” signs in their front yards.
I recall watching the results of the race unfold on Fox News during election night and being flabbergasted at how close things got, and it looks like lefties in Texas are projecting a similarly close race in 2026.
Anyone I talked to that had lived in the DFW area beforehand said it wasn’t always like that, claiming in recent years, cities like Dallas and Austin moved increasingly to the left thanks to liberal business owners and tech bros, respectively, being priced out of places like San Francisco and the Silicon Valley.
The same thing happened in Florida.
I moved back home in 2023 and got to know more than a few New Yorkers who, while excoriating the increasingly left-leaning state and city they hailed from, still fall into the “vote blue no matter who” crowd.
I’m not saying we shouldn’t celebrate “red” states gaining votes in the coming elections. If these were the population splits in the last few elections, Trump would’ve won in a landslide.
But it’s just my opinion that it’s never that simple.
I could be wrong, and the consensus from both liberals and conservatives is that this is a windfall for the GOP, but I think approaching this with cautious optimism would be the best course of action.
Let me know what you think! Is this an absolute win for the GOP, or will the people leaving the blue states just turn our red states purple? Email me at austin.perry@outkick.com and sound off.
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