Once you look past the Reddit spin, it’s clear NBC shelled out billions for a product that’s still losing fans
On Tuesday, the NBA returned to NBC for the first time in more than two decades, tipping off the 2025–26 season. Almost immediately after the network posted its ratings, the fanboys on the Bill Simmons Reddit page wanted to hear from, not Simmons, but me.
“11 million for NBA opening night, far exceeding this subreddit’s expectation. Did NBC underpay for the NBA? Hey Bobby Burack,” a Simmons Reddit editor asked.
Happy to answer.
For background, NBC executives admitted to the Wall Street Journal this week that they overpaid for NBA rights and that the product is likely to be a “money loser” for the network. Considering the league has lost around 50 percent of its viewers this decade and NBC agreed to pay $2.5 billion per year for 11 years, totaling $27.5 billion, we agreed.
The Simmons fanboys are also triggered by me because Simmons and Ryen Russillo spent weeks this summer complaining about my coverage of the NBA on their podcasts.
NBC is paying $2.5 billion per year over the next decade to broadcast NBA games. (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Numbers from Tuesday
First, the NBA did not draw 11 million viewers on opening night, as the Redditors claim. The Rockets–Thunder averaged 5.9 million, while the Warriors–Lakers drew 5.1 million. You don’t add the two together to get a doubleheader total since there’s significant crossover viewership between games.
Second, NBA fans are mistakenly comparing Tuesday’s numbers to last season’s 2.95 million average on opening night. Those are not valid comparisons, nor are any comparisons to opening nights over the past two decades when the event aired on TNT, a cable network with far fewer households than NBC, a broadcast network.
Also note that Nielsen recently changed its measurement system to what it calls Big Data + Panel. This method combines traditional Nielsen panels with millions of data points from smart TVs and streaming devices, supposedly expanding the sample size to include viewers watching via apps and connected TVs. The result is that sports viewership estimates have risen sharply across the board, including for the NFL, MLB and college football.
For that reason, year-over-year ratings comparisons are now largely meaningless.
The Better Comparison: NBC Primetime
A more useful comparison for the NBA’s return to NBC is to other primetime shows on the network airing from 8 to 11 p.m. ET. On the surface, the NBA’s Tuesday viewership is roughly on par with NBC’s weeknight primetime average. Recent data shows The Voice, Chicago Med, Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., and Law & Order each average between 4.4 million and 6.3 million viewers.
But there are two factors to consider when comparing the NBA on NBC to those shows.
- Cost: The NBA is far more expensive. Producing a season of The Voice or Chicago Med costs nowhere near 2.5 billion dollars per year.
- Context: Opening night ratings rarely predict long-term performance. Viewership is always inflated on opening night, and this year’s numbers were boosted by nostalgia for the NBA’s return to NBC and the re-launch of “Roundball Rock” intro song, which didn’t disappoint.
For perspective, last season’s opening night on TNT averaged 2.95 million viewers, but TNT’s regular-season average was just 1.25 million.
By all indications, the NBA on NBC will average significantly less than The Voice or Chicago Med, yet cost vastly more.
The NBC crew was on hand for the Rockets-Thunder opening-night clash, which drew 5.9 million viewers. (Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant /NBAE via Getty Images)
NBC’s Internal Counterarguments
NBC executives and NBA proponents inside the network would counter with a few points:
- They’d argue that the NBA’s popularity among advertisers’ key 18–49 demographic is higher than for scripted programming. That’s true.
- They’d say the NBA will age better over the next decade than other programs. The past decade, however, suggests otherwise.
- They’d hope the NBA’s return will drive new paying subscribers to Peacock. Maybe.
Nonetheless, concerns about the NBA losing NBC money are not going away.
OutKick vs Bill Simmons and NBA Fanboys
Simmons, Russillo and the fanboys are likely to continue their fight against OutKick. These guys are offended that we would dare challenge the perception of their precious league. By the way, Prime Bill Simmons, around 2009, would cringe at the type of establishment shill he has become in his later years.
But here’s the thing: OutKick has already won.
The fact that our coverage is now a discussion point on other shows and the first thought for NBA fans after the ratings emerge has completely changed the narrative. Last June, instead of covering the NBA Finals, Simmons and Russillo opened their shows talking about OutKick, Clay Travis, and me.
Finally, what we have said about the NBA can no longer be disputed in good faith. We have the following points:
- The NBA is more popular among the media than the average fan, the inverse of sports like the NFL, college football, and MLB.
- Networks like ESPN that pushed the narrative that the NBA would surpass the NFL by 2030 look foolish.
- Painting Black Lives Matter on the court was a bad idea. It was. The ratings crashed by 53 percent and the league removed the painting the next season.
- All the three-point shooting, load management, and player movement would cost the league popularity. It has. The NBA has never been less popular than it is today.
- Minimizing the importance of small-market teams would cost the league. Look at the ratings for Oklahoma City and Indianapolis last June.
OutKick never said the NBA would close shop. We said it was the original Bud Light. And like the beer brand, the NBA is still reeling from waving its hand goodbye to ordinary Americans.
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