Last week was the worst 3-2 possible because it was a 5-0 blue balls. I hit all three of my NFL picks on Sunday, then went 0-2 on Monday night. I nailed all three of my Sunday picks, then went 0-2 in the Monday Night Football doubleheader. The worst part? Both offenses I bet on played like garbage. It was brutal to watch. I guess taking an outright beating is easier to stomach than a bad beat, but yeah… I’m still butt-hurt.
Week 7 Recap: 3-2 (17-18, tied for 2,433rd out of 5,685 entries).
- Los Angeles Rams (-3) ✅
- Chicago Bears (-4.5) ✅
- Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) ✅
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) ❌
- Houston Texans (+3) ❌
Week 8 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)
Circa Million VII NFL Week 8 Card
Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.
- Green Bay Packers (-3)
- Chicago Bears (+6.5)
- New Orleans Saints (+3.5)
- Miami Dolphins (+7.5)
- New York Jets (+6.5)
Circa Million VII Pick #1: Packers (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay’s defense is flat-out nasty, while Pittsburgh’s offense is mostly smoke and mirrors. The Packers rank first in yards per play allowed and sixth in points per play allowed. They’re also fifth in pass-rush win rate and sixth in run-stop win rate, per ESPN. In Week 1, they held the Lions to 3.8 yards per play, and in Week 2, limited a healthy Commanders offense to just 3.5.
It might not feel like it — especially since Green Bay has dropped four straight against the spread — but Jordan Love is quietly balling. He ranks second in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation (in plain English: he’s throwing guys open and creating scoring plays) and seventh in QBR, all without a true game-breaking receiver.
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love celebrates a first down vs. the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium in NFL Week 7. (Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images)
Both Pittsburgh and Green Bay have faced the Bengals with Joe Flacco at quarterback. The Packers outgained Cincinnati 6.8 to 4.3 in yards per play, while the Steelers were outgained 7.3 to 6.5. On a neutral field, I’d make Green Bay a 6.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh — and we’re getting value here because nobody likes fading Mike Tomlin and the Steelers at home in primetime.
Pick #2: Bears (+6.5) at Baltimore Ravens
This could easily be my first pick of the week. However, with Saturday’s news that Lamar Jackson will sit again Sunday, Chicago is shaping up to be the most popular play on the board — and I’d rather zag than follow the crowd. That said, if I liked the Bears when I thought Lamar was playing, I love them now that they’re +1.5 in the market without him, and still locked in at +6.5 in the contest.
The gist of my handicap: Chicago’s offense keeps improving under first-year head coach Ben Johnson, while Baltimore’s defense has been shaky all season. The Bears are the only team to hit the Over on their team total every game this year, and the Ravens rank dead last in points allowed per game (32.3).
Lastly, some betting analysts have been knocking Chicago’s defense for being too reliant on turnovers and having a poor success rate. Fair — but at least the Bears are doing something right on that side of the ball. And with Baltimore starting backup QB Snoop Huntley — who’s 5-9 as a starter with 10 interceptions and 13 fumbles — there’s a decent chance Chicago’s defense can add a few more takeaways to that total.
Pick #3: Buccaneers at Saints (+3.5)
Tampa’s Week 8 injury report is one of the ugliest of the season. The Bucs will be without wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, running back Bucky Irving, and pass-rusher Haason Reddick. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Vita Vea is listed as doubtful after missing practice Thursday and Friday. To make matters worse, Tampa has a short week and now heads on the road to face a divisional opponent.
Baker Mayfield didn’t help matters Monday night, either. He was awful in the 24–9 loss to Detroit — a Lions team missing most of its secondary. Sure, his struggles were partly due to an injured receiver corps, but that’s the same problem again this week.
Four of Tampa Bay’s five wins this season have come thanks to Mayfield’s late-game heroics. But at some point, the magic runs out — and with this many injuries, it might be now.
New Orleans is underrated in the market. Don’t get me wrong — the Saints aren’t good — but they’ve been more competitive than their record suggests. They missed covering against the Cardinals in Week 1 by just a half-point, should’ve covered versus the 49ers in Week 2, and last week’s loss to Chicago was closer than the final score indicates. If the Saints had stolen even one of those games, their power rating would likely be 1.0–1.5 points higher.
On the bright side, quarterback Spencer Rattler has been solid, and the team is mostly healthy. Rattler ranks 16th in QBR and 14th among quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus. He’s got a strong supporting cast, too, with receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, running back Alvin Kamara, and do-it-all threat Taysom Hill.
Pick #4: Dolphins (+7.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Even though Atlanta backup QB Kirk Cousins will likely start in place of an “injured” Michael Penix Jr., the analysis I gave earlier this week on the OutKick Bets Podcast still stands. The Falcons shouldn’t be favored by more than -5.5 with a quarterback as inconsistent as Penix — and Cousins is a clear downgrade.
Penix has been rough this season, but the idea that “Cousins can’t be that much worse” doesn’t hold up. Before being benched for Penix last year, Cousins led the NFL with 16 interceptions and posted his worst QBR since becoming Washington’s starter in 2015. At 37, there’s a real chance Cousins is simply past his NFL shelf life.
Meanwhile, this line feels like an overreaction to Miami’s 31–6 loss in Cleveland. I’m tossing that game out — it was rainy, windy, and Tua Tagovailoa has never played well in bad weather. The Dolphins were -4 in turnovers, which isn’t sustainable, and they’ll be much more comfortable on the fast track inside Mercedes-Benz Stadium this Sunday.
Pick #5: Jets (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
I misread the tea leaves with first-year Jets head coach Aaron Glenn’s press-conference gibberish and owner Woody Johnson’s criticism of QB Justin Fields. I thought New York would roll with backup Tyrod Taylor — a covering machine. Unfortunately, Tyrod isn’t healthy, and like an idiot, I locked in my picks before Fields was officially named the starter this week.
That said, this play is more about fading Cincinnati than backing the sorry Jets. The Bengals rank 32nd in defensive success rate, and Pro Football Focus has their offensive line graded 30th entering Week 8. A team with a bottom-tier defense, a bad O-line, and a third-string quarterback shouldn’t be laying -6.5 points against anyone — even the dumpster fire that is the NYJ.
Furthermore, the Jets actually grade better across the board. They’ve got higher win rates in all four line-of-scrimmage metrics (per ESPN), a better yards-per-play differential, and a stronger net early-down success rate. Their defense has quietly held up, too — limiting both the Broncos and Panthers to just 13 points in back-to-back weeks.
I’m also fading two things here: the market’s overreaction to last week’s results and the lazy narrative that the Jets have “quit” on Glenn. Before last week’s action, Cincinnati was only a -2.5 favorite in this matchup. Then they upset the Steelers while New York lost to Carolina, and suddenly it’s -6.5? Nah.
The Jets might be 0-7, but winless teams don’t give up — not when they’re full of professionals embarrassed by that record.
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