Coach’s time in Southern Cal hasn’t lived up to the hype. With rising pressure and high stakes, 2025 may be his make-or-break season.
We’re entering the fourth year of the Lincoln Riley era in Southern California. And for a tenure that started with such high expectations, big-name transfers and an immediate return to relevance, the last two seasons have been underwhelming, to say the least.
Riley’s USC Trojans finished 6-6 in the 2024 regular season, with forgivable losses to Notre Dame and Penn State, and disastrous losses to Minnesota, Maryland and Washington. 6-6 after a 7-5 2023 would be disappointing for many programs. It’s unacceptable at a blue-blood program like USC. That immediately sparked legitimate and justifiable conversations about Riley’s job status and future.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich spoke about it on “Get Up” recently, and said she’s spoken to Riley about his expectations for this season and whether she believes that “hot seat” is an accurate description.
Lincoln Riley hasn’t lived up to the high expectations he entered with at USC. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Lincoln Riley At USC Has To Start Living Up To Expectations
Dinich explained that it’s premature to say that Riley is in immediate danger of losing his job. Though that doesn’t mean there isn’t “tremendous pressure” for him to start winning in a hurry.
“He knows, because of where he is, he’s under tremendous pressure,” Dinich said. “But the reality is he has a lengthy contract and a huge buyout.”
That buyout is rumored to be massive, with some estimates placing it at over $80 million. It’s hard to imagine any program being willing to eat that much money. The Trojans also now have the top recruiting class in the country for 2026, as well as an elite coaching staff and a brand-new, state-of-the-art football facility set to open next year.
Dinich said Riley believes SC was close in 2024, and is much closer in 2025.
“He told me this summer that he feels they are right on the doorstep,” Dinich said. “And they are. When you look back at last season, they lost five Big Ten games by seven points or fewer. That is the most in the FBS. So, he said, ‘Eventually, it’s going to happen.'”
It’s a legitimate question whether those close losses were down to bad luck and randomness, or an inherent flaw in Riley’s coaching and ability. But with a gigantic buyout, SC doesn’t have much choice but to see how the team can improve in the next few seasons. Though if things somehow get worse in 2025, like say, a record under .500, that patience might wear thin.
The Trojans’ schedule isn’t exactly easy, but it doesn’t quite rise to the level of 2024’s gauntlet:
- Aug 30 – vs. Missouri State
- Sep 6 – vs. Georgia Southern
- Sep 13 – at Purdue
- Sep 20 – vs. Michigan State
- Sep 27 – at Illinois
- Oct 11 – vs. Michigan
- Oct 18 – at Notre Dame
- Nov 1 – at Nebraska
- Nov 7 – vs. Northwestern
- Nov 15 – vs. Iowa
- Nov 22 – at Oregon
- Nov 29 – vs. UCLA
It’s easy to look at that schedule and imagine SC winning nine games: hold serve at home, lose to Oregon and Notre Dame on the road, and throw in another road loss in a toss-up matchup against, say, Illinois or Nebraska. It’s also easy to imagine the Trojans’ season falling apart with home losses to Michigan and Iowa, not to mention against a rejuvenated UCLA team with new QB Nico Iamaleava.
At least it’ll be exciting.
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