Clay Travis’s Starting 11: The SEC’s 10-2 Teams Are Making The Playoff Edition

I spent Saturday at Missouri-Vanderbilt in Nashville, my first trip to the newly renovated Vanderbilt football stadium.

As someone who sat in the concrete-laden student section as a law school student from 2001 to 2004, I can’t believe how much they have redone this stadium. Last year, to Vandy’s credit, they let the local Nashville schools play their 8th grade championship games there — my son’s team played. The boys were ecstatic at the opportunity to play on an SEC field, but the stadium was still being renovated, so you couldn’t tour any of it yet.

So this was my first time in the newly refurbished stadium. And, trust me, I get it. Vanderbilt, which only has an undergrad enrollment of around 7,000 students, is never going to have the same kind of football stadium as the rest of the SEC schools, but a really nice, high end, stadium that seats around 35,000 is perfect for the school.  

And I have to tell you, the new end zone suites are truly fantastic, as nice as any of the top end suites that I’ve seen in many SEC stadiums.

It’s like a different world in the stadium.

And it’s certainly a different world on the field, where the Commodores can line up and beat anyone now.

Vandy has benefited from a surge in popularity in the SEC. The result? Well, yes, Vandy has their best football record through eight games since 1941. But the university is poised to enroll the most selective class in university history too.

Undergrad and graduate applications are soaring, and I can only imagine how impactful the past two weeks of wins will be in driving even more applicants to the school.

I have a new book coming out in nine days, “Balls: How Trump, Young Men, and Sports Fans Saved America,” which I think all of you would enjoy and should go buy, but I also kind of want to write a book on the impact Nick Saban has had on the entire SEC over the past twenty years. Yes, Saban won six national titles at Alabama, but I think he did something even more remarkable. He made moms and dads in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York City start begging with admissions counselors to get their kids into SEC schools.

And not just the most selective schools like Vanderbilt, Texas, Georgia and Florida, y’all, Ole Miss rejects people now.

Ole Miss!

When I was a high school senior, Ole Miss would admit dead people if you paid out-of-state tuition for them.

Now it’s getting hard to get admitted to any SEC school, even in-state.

It’s one of the most impressive examples of athletics driving academics in American history.

And I still don’t think this story has been told as it should be told.

So maybe I’ll have to do it.

Anyway, in the meantime, onto the football and the Starting 11.

1. What a win for Texas A&M at LSU

I’ve bumped the Aggies up to my overall number one team in the country because you have to be a truly excellent team to go into Baton Rouge at night and dominate like A&M did.

I know, I know, we will talk about Brian Kelly’s future at LSU in a moment, but 49 points and 224 rushing yards?!

Come on, that’s elite.

Outscoring LSU 35-7 in the second half at night?!

That’s a statement.

I know Battered Aggie Syndrome is real, but this feels like the win that put A&M in the playoff. Beat Missouri in two weeks, and you can basically punch the ticket for sure. This Aggie team has answered every challenge and I think this was the best game they have played all around all season long so far.  

As for LSU, Brian Kelly is 5-3 and this is going to be a LONG bye week in Baton Rouge.

The game in Tuscaloosa basically feels like a win-or-you-get-fired scenario.

You guys know what the best scenario is here, right? LSU offers $25 million a year to Nick Saban and makes him say no.

Can you imagine Saban going back to LSU?

I need this to happen deep in my soul.

Please, please, it would be a sports story for the ages.

2. Ole Miss likely punched their playoff ticket with a win at Oklahoma

I know, I know, part two.

Ole Miss fans are terrified of believing in success: Eli Manning gets tripped with an SEC West title on the line, the crazy fourth down lateral by Arkansas, last year’s game at Florida — fate conspires to curse Ole Miss just when it seems like victory is in hand.

But the win at Oklahoma — Lane’s first road SEC win against a top 25 opponent — sets the table for a final four now of South Carolina, The Citadel, and Florida in Oxford, followed by a close on the road at Mississippi State.

I know after what happened last year at Florida, there will be a huge amount of trepidation about all these games, but Ole Miss really has to be considered a playoff favorite at this point.

Even though that Egg Bowl game is guaranteed to be a white knuckler.  

As for Oklahoma, they’re in the two-loss mess of SEC teams and the game in Knoxville next weekend is now a playoff elimination game. Win and you’re still alive, lose, and you’re headed for a bowl game no fan base really wants to attend.

Yeah, big stakes.

3. Vanderbilt outlasted Missouri to get to 7-1 for the first time since 1941

Yes, the Commodores were fortunate to win.

But as anyone who has watched Vandy snatch defeat from the jaws of victory for decades knows, no Commodore fan is apologizing for this win at all.

Especially not coming on the heels of the win last week over LSU.

On a day when the offense was probably the least productive it has been all season, Vanderbilt found a way to outlast Missouri and to take advantage of Missouri’s errors:a missed chip shot field goal, the stoppage on fourth and goal at the one — we’re all wishing Beau Pribula well on his recovery — and the ripped away fourth quarter fumble that essentially got Vandy the late win.

For Vandy, the schedule sets up well: at Texas, Auburn, Kentucky, and at Tennessee.

Go 3-1 in these final four and a 10-2 record likely punches a Commodore playoff ticket.

As for Missouri, Texas A&M in two weeks is now a must win if the Tigers want to stay alive in the playoff mix.

4. Alabama was fortunate to beat South Carolina, but the Tide found a way late

The game against South Carolina just confirmed for me that outside of Texas A&M, no one in the SEC has been really consistent in all their games this year.  

Kalen DeBoer dodged double-digit road favorite disaster and South Carolina just couldn’t make plays when it was winning time.

The Gamecocks did, however, play Alabama dead even in first downs and total yards. South Carolina is 1-4 in the SEC and had an eight-point lead on the Tide with a couple of minutes left in the game. Again, there’s really not much that divides the top and bottom teams in the SEC this year, especially when the top teams are on the road.  

So now what?

Alabama has mostly run the SEC season gauntlet. Yes, they have LSU in two weeks, but it’s at home and then comes Oklahoma and Eastern Illinois, also in Tuscaloosa, before the game at Auburn.

Yes, Auburn can spoil the Tide season, but right now Alabama is playing with house money here since their loss was out of conference to a 3-4 Florida State team. Even with a loss down the stretch, given that Alabama has wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, Alabama has a good shot at being in Atlanta and if you’re in Atlanta you’re going to be in the playoff.

But, man, that easy ride to the playoff almost got completely derailed in Columbia and Tide fans are breathing much easier than they would be if 6-2 Alabama were hosting 5-3 LSU in a loser-leaves-town battle in two weeks.

5. Nine SEC teams are still alive for the playoff

I’m just going to keep saying it and some of y’all can keep arguing with me if you’d like, but if you get to 10-2 or better in the SEC, you’re going to make the playoff.

Okay, here are the nine teams still alive for the playoff in the SEC and their remaining schedules:

8-0 Texas A&M:at Missouri, South Carolina, Samford, at Texas
7-1 Alabama: LSU, Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois, at Auburn
7-1 Georgia: at Mississippi State, Texas, Charlotte, Georgia Tech
7-1 Vanderbilt: at Texas, Auburn, Kentucky, at Tennessee
7-1 Ole Miss: South Carolina, The Citadel, Florida, at Mississippi State
6-2 Tennessee: Oklahoma, New Mexico State, at Florida, Vanderbilt
6-2 Texas: Vanderbilt, at Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M
6-2 Missouri: Texas A&M, Mississippi State, at Oklahoma, at Arkansas
6-2 Oklahoma: at Tennessee, at Alabama, Missouri, LSU

Make your wagers as you see fit. I think every team here has a shot at 10-2, personally, except Oklahoma. That Sooner closing schedule is just brutal.

And if I were betting right now, I’d have Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss all finishing 10-2 or better. And that Vandy at Tennessee game potentially being for a playoff bid too.

As you can see, several of these teams will play each other starting as soon as next week in playoff elimination games, but it feels like a pretty good situation to have over half the league entering November with their fans still having playoff hopes.

And here’s a fun debate for you: If Notre Dame finishes 10-2 and an SEC team also finishes 10-2, who would deserve to get in as an at-large? I know SEC resumes will differ, but just buckle up for this battle because it might well happen.

Again, I’m of the opinion that 10-2 in the SEC is going to punch a playoff ticket.

So let’s see how many teams can get to 10-2 or better.

Because I guarantee you there will also be some big upsets. Heck, look what Mississippi State and Kentucky have almost done to Texas the past two weeks and look what South Carolina almost did to Alabama this week.

6. The Big Ten looks like a three playoff league as Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon have created distance between themselves and everyone else so far

In fact, I think you can go ahead and punch the playoff tickets for Ohio State and Indiana, but Oregon feels a bit wobbly to me coming down the stretch run. The Ducks weren’t great against Wisconsin and now have a final four of at Iowa, Minnesota, USC, and at Washington.

I think the Ducks lose at least one of these four games.

Are we sure 10-2 Oregon without a single top 25 win is a shoe-in for the playoff?

I’m not.

Especially not if someone else in the two-loss brigade gets hot in the Big Ten from here. Iowa, Michigan, USC, Nebraska and Washington all still only have two losses too. Meaning the Big Ten still has eight teams alive for the playoff as we enter November football.    

7. The ACC will be a one or two bid league and the big question there is can Miami run the table or not?

Georgia Tech keeps winning and the 8-0 Yellow Jackets only have three ACC games left: at NC State, at Boston College, and Pitt, before hosting Georgia to close out the season.

Miami, meanwhile, has already had both of its bye weeks, so the Hurricanes now finish with five straight conference games, three of them on the road.

As for the title game race, seven ACC teams have one or fewer losses so this thing is still wide open when it comes to the ACC title game.

8. BYU is the only undefeated team in the Big 12, and it looks like a five-team race to the title game

BYU and Cincinnati are both still undefeated in conference, Texas Tech and Houston each with one loss and Arizona State with two losses, but with a tiebreak win over Texas Tech in the event the Red Raiders stumble again.(BYU plays at Tech on November 8th, which should be a hell of a battle, and at Cincinnati on November 22nd, so the schedule is very difficult going forward).

The only way I see the Big 12 getting two teams in the playoff would be if undefeated BYU lost to a one-loss team in the Big 12 title game.  

9. Let’s check out the National title and Heisman odds now that we have finished October football

There are 13 teams with odds of 55-1 or lower to win the title as I write this after midnight as Saturday turns to Sunday.

Ohio State +240
Indiana 7-1
Alabama 7-1
Oregon 8.5 to 1
Georgia 10-1
Texas A&M 10-1
Notre Dame 10-1
Miami 17-1
Ole Miss 20-1
Texas Tech 22-1
Vanderbilt 25-1
Texas 55-1
Tennessee 55-1

Everyone else is 100-1 or more.

As for the Heisman odds, here’s the top six, which are basically the quarterbacks of the top five teams in college football and then Diego Pavia too:

Fernando Mendoza 3-1
Ty Simpson 3.5 to 1
Julian Sayin 4 to 1
Marcel Reed 5.5 to 1
Diego Pavia 8.5 to 1
Gunner Stockton 12-1

10. My Outkick National Top Ten

I’m cheating a bit here and having a tie at ten because I think there are eleven deserving top ten teams and then a pretty good dropoff after that.

Every week Ohio State fans lose their minds over my rankings here, but what truly good win does Ohio State have this year? Texas, Illinois, and Washington are the three best wins for the Buckeyes. Well, Texas just needed overtime to beat Kentucky and Mississippi State and Illinois has three losses in the Big Ten now, all by double digits, including a 53-point loss to Indiana. Washington is probably Ohio State’s best win, but that win is weaker than the best win of every other team in my top ten other than Georgia Tech. Alabama has four better wins than Ohio State does. Yes, the Crimson Tide has one worse loss, but the Buckeye schedule has been, and will be, weak for the entire regular season.  

I think third is eminently fair if you look at actual on-field results and analyze who teams have beaten. If anything, third might be too high when you look at Alabama and Georgia’s wins.

1. Texas A&M
2. Indiana
3. Ohio State
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Vanderbilt
8. BYU
9. Georgia Tech
10. Miami/Oregon (tie)

11. SEC power rankings 1-16

As I broke down above, there are nine teams still alive for the college football playoff from the SEC.

1. Texas A&M
2. Alabama
3. Georgia
4. Ole Miss
5. Vanderbilt
6. Tennessee
7. Missouri
8. Texas
9. Oklahoma
10. LSU
11. Florida
12. Auburn
13. South Carolina
14. Mississippi State
15. Arkansas
16. Kentucky