Maine Rep. Jared Golden, one of the most vulnerable House Democrats seeking reelection in 2026, faces an uphill climb in his quest for a fifth term, according to new polling.
A survey from Pine Tree State Poll released Thursday shows Golden, 43, trailing former Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage, 77, 49% to 44% among likely voters. Golden’s poor polling performance comes as he is facing a serious primary challenge from the left for the first time in his career and national Republican groups are pouring money into the race to flip his seat red. (RELATED: Messy Dem Primary Spells Good News For Republican Efforts To Flip House Seat)
Golden represents the most GOP-leaning district currently held by a Democrat, making the purple district a top pickup opportunity for Republicans during the midterms. President Donald Trump bested former Vice President Kamala Harris in the district by nine percentage points in 2024.
LePage, a two-term governor who has not held office since 2019, also won Golden’s district during his failed run for a third term against Democratic Gov. Janet Mills in 2022.
The ex-governor remains more popular in Maine’s 2nd congressional district compared to Golden, who holds just a 16% favorability rating among district residents, according to the poll. Golden also has a net favorability rating of -25 percentage points. Forty percent of 2nd district residents reported a neutral opinion toward Golden, and 41% had an unfavorable opinion of him.
Though LePage’s favorables are also slightly underwater, 41% of respondents have a positive view of the former governor, 51% have a negative view — a net favorability rating of -10 percentage points — and 6% are neutral toward him, according to the survey.
PORTLAND, ME – AUGUST 04: Maine Governor Paul LePage, (R), greets the crowd before Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at the Merrill Auditorium on August 4, 2016 in Portland, Maine. (Photo by Sarah Rice/Getty Images)
Nearly six in ten residents of Golden’s district told the pollster that their congressman does not deserve to be reelected. Roughly a quarter of respondents — and just 51% of Democrats — said he should be reelected to serve another two-year term.
Maine State Auditor Matt Dunlap entered the Democratic primary in early October despite establishment Democrats urging him to pass on the race.
Dunlap is making a run against Golden from the left and has blasted the incumbent for periodically crossing party lines to vote for GOP-authored legislation. Golden was the lone House Democrat to buck House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and vote for a GOP spending bill to avert a government shutdown.
The pollster did not survey a hypothetical two-way matchup between Golden and Dunlap.
The Pine Tree State Poll also found Graham Platner, a Bernie Sanders-backed oyster farmer, carving out a commanding lead over Mills in the state’s Democratic primary for Senate. However, the polling was conducted amid a torrent of revelations about his social media history and possessing a tattoo widely believed to resemble a Nazi symbol.
Platner has been dogged by a flurry of unearthed Reddit posts where he describes himself as a communist and insulted police and rural white Americans among other controversial messages. The insurgent left-wing candidate has since covered up the controversial tattoo.
The American Action Network, a sister organization of the House GOP-leadership aligned Congressional Leadership Fund, has spent $2 million alone to unseat Golden this year.
“No one likes Jared Golden. He should drop out to save face and preserve what little credibility (16%) he has left,” Congressional Leadership Fund spokeswoman Lydia Hall said in a statement, referencing Golden’s low favorability rating.
A May CLF poll first reported by Notus found Golden trailing LePage 43% to 48% among likely voters in a general election matchup.
The multimodal survey of 1,015 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The University of New Hampshire Survey Center conducted the poll.
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