On Tuesday afternoon, the White House issued a statement on X outlining a deal with Minnesota officials that drives a knife into the back of everyone who showed up to the polls to deliver President Trump a historic victory in 2024. The post explains that the policy going forward will be to target “criminal illegal aliens,” thereby seemingly abandoning the administration’s promise to conduct mass deportations of as many illegal aliens as possible.
Putting aside the fact that this capitulation is a giant victory for Democrats that rewards their violent, treasonous interference with the enforcement of immigration law, this new strategy comes with an even greater consequence for the future of the Republic. The Republican Party, including Trump himself, seems to be in the throes of a terrible delusion in believing they can abandon the mass deportation effort, but still deliver wins elsewhere. This is all but impossible.
As I wrote here, immigration determines the outcome of every other issue. Between 1965 and 2025, there were 15 presidential elections, and in only one of those elections did a non-white demographic vote as a majority for the Republican candidate. Abandoning mass deportations will set into motion the final stages of the demographic transformation of the American electorate, something Democrats have bragged about for decades. If the issue you hold dearest is the Second Amendment, crime, energy, abortion, DEI, health care, religious liberty, or the economy — realize that a loss on deportations will make such concerns meaningless. Those issues are subordinate to immigration.
To put this into perspective, consider that both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections were decided by less than 100,000 votes in key swing states. Even if illegal aliens never become voters themselves, birthright citizenship guarantees millions of new voters for the Democratic Party. Unless there is a miraculous change in demographic voting patterns, this will enshrine the left’s permanent demographic majority that will soon make it impossible for a Republican to win a presidential election, and shortly thereafter, winning a Senate or House seat in a tossup district will also become a relic of the past for Republicans.
It is difficult to say exactly what percentage of illegal aliens have committed additional crimes beyond illegal entry (in part because Democrat localities lie about these figures), but many illegal alien killers had no prior criminal record before committing homicide, meaning the official new position of the Trump administration is that they won’t even attempt to deport illegal aliens who might commit horrendous crimes in the future. Cristhian Bahena Rivera, the illegal alien who murdered the 20-year-old University of Iowa student Mollie Tibbetts, had no prior criminal record before he murdered Tibbetts.
To make matters worse, Democrats have a plan to place even stricter limits on who can be detained and deported. Reports indicate that part of the looming DHS funding battle will involve a proposal from Democrats that requires illegal aliens to have committed an additional federal crime before they can be targeted for deportation, a mandate that also calls for a federal judge to issue an arrest warrant before ICE can act. Put simply, an illegal alien could, under many circumstances, commit first-degree murder, rape, or armed robbery without necessarily running afoul of a federal law, insulating even cold-blooded murderers from deportation.
All of this is insane and should enrage every American who has spent their life watching the left march through and capture our institutions while feckless Republicans did nothing to stop it. If Democrats can orchestrate an invasion involving upwards of 10 million illegal aliens and Republicans agree to let them all stay except for those caught committing additional crimes, then Republicans are digging their own graves. This is yet another example of the fact that when Democrats win elections, they make it easier for Democrats to win future elections, and when Republicans win elections … they also make it easier for Democrats to win future elections.
Conservatives have been demoralized and humiliated one too many times. We were told this administration would be different. Now is the time for voters to send a clear message: if this administration abandons what is the most important and consequential policy of our lifetimes, we will never forgive you, and our support can hardly be counted on in the future. Officials in the Trump administration might want to also consider what an AOC presidency might have in store for them. Can you really afford to lose your base?
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