After a long period of deliberation, US President Donald Trump will finally announce his nominee for the FED chairman today.
It was reported that the number of candidates was narrowed down to two, Kevin Warsh and Rick Rieder, and this was claimed to have negatively impacted Bitcoin.
Accordingly, the increasing likelihood of former FED Chairman Kevin Warsh being appointed as the next FED Chairman is intensifying the downward pressure on Bitcoin (BTC).
Although Warsh occasionally takes a positive stance towards cryptocurrencies, some analysts consider him a bearish force for Bitcoin.
Speaking to Coindesk, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that Warsh advocates for higher real interest rates and lower liquidity.
Thielen also noted that Warsh views cryptocurrencies as speculative tools that will disappear when the era of low interest rates ends.
“Markets generally view the resurgence of Warsh’s influence as a bearish signal for Bitcoin.”
Because Warsh’s emphasis on monetary discipline, higher real interest rates, and decreasing liquidity means he sees Bitcoin not as a hedge against devaluation, but as a speculative excess that will disappear once the money is withdrawn.”
Thielen noted that over the years, many experts had shown that Warsh’s hawkish stance and his disregard for the risks of deflation had worsened the crisis.
According to Thielen, Warsh repeatedly spoke of inflation risks during the global financial crisis (GFC), which lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, even when the global economy was teetering on the brink of deflation.
In September 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed, Warsh said, “I’m still not ready to give up on my concerns about inflation.” Seven months later, with the Fed’s inflation measure at 0.8% and the unemployment rate at 9%, Warsh stated, “I’m more concerned about the upside risks of inflation than the downside risks.”
At this point, Thielen argues that Warsh’s hawkish track record sharply clashes with Trump’s inflationary, pro-rivalry strategy, making Warsh’s potential candidacy ironic.
Trump has repeatedly criticized Jerome Powell, accusing him of keeping interest rates high and killing the economy. At this point, Thielen believes the market thinks Warsh is the wrong choice for the Fed, which is expected to follow Trump’s line.
*This is not investment advice.
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